Talking about how Obama is going back on his campaign promise to look at labor/environmental regulations in NAFTA because too politically risky
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/business/21nafta.html?_r=1&nl=pol&emc=pola1
bz
Monday, April 20, 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Obama calls for U.S., Mexico to jointly combat drug cartels
On his first visit to Mexico, he agrees with President Felipe Calderon to also cooperate on energy, the environment and immigration. Obama now moves on to the Latin American summit.
By Peter Nicholas and Tracy Wilkinson
3:16 PM PDT, April 16, 2009
Reporting from Mexico City -- President Obama, in his first official trip to Mexico, said he will push for U.S. ratification of a treaty designed to lessen the flow of weapons to drug cartels and announced that the countries will work together on a host of issues including the environment and energy.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Mexico President Felipe Calderon, Obama said the arms trafficking treaty was needed as part "of the battle against drug cartels that are robbing so many of a future."
The presidents also announced the formation of the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Framework on Clean Energy and Climate Change, a mechanism to stimulate political and technical cooperation between the countries. And they said they would work together on other issues, including immigration.
"On many of the other thorny topics of relations between U.S. and Mexico, we have had an open, frank and trusting conversation between President Obama and myself," Calderon said at the news conference.
Obama and Calderon met this afternoon after Obama arrived here on the first leg of his Latin America debut. Obama will spend less than 24 hours in Mexico before continuing Friday to Trinidad and Tobago for the fifth Summit of the Americas, a three-day meeting of the hemisphere's 34 elected heads of state and government. U.S.-Latin American relations are at their lowest point in years.
The Obama administration had already said it will increase enforcement of existing laws to try to stop the smuggling of weapons across the border. Today's announcement is a further step in the battle against the cartels.
The Inter-American Convention Against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Ammunition, Explosives and Other Related Items better known by its Spanish acronym, CIFTA, was adopted in 1997 and went to the U.S. Senate in 1998. The United States is one of four nations in the Western Hemisphere that have not ratified the convention, though the U.S. has sought to abide by the treaty's spirit.
President Obama arrived in an embattled Mexico, where he faced a test of his ability to bring fundamental change to one of Washington's most important relationships.
Obama stepped off of Air Force One at about 1:30 p.m. local time and was greeted by Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinosa. He was then taken by helicopter to confer with Calderon.
At the formal welcoming ceremony, Calderon called for a new era of understanding and cooperation.
"We are, we can and we should be friends, partners and allies," Calderon said. "Mr. President, let's start a new era of relations between the United States and Mexico, . . . new era in which we work together to make our border an example of productivity and security . . . a new era in which the fight against organized crime is waged completely as a shared responsibility, a battle waged by both Mexicans and Americans and won as allies."
Then adapting Obama's slogan from the presidential campaign, Mexico's president added in English: "Let's build a new era. Yes we can."
Obama was equally gracious thanking Calderon for the welcome.
"There's a reason why the first visit I had with a president was with President Calderon," Obama said. "We are joined by a border but our bonds are so much more than that."
Obama arrived at 2:09 p.m. for the formal welcoming ceremony in a park on the grounds of Los Pinos, Mexico's equivalent of the White House. A podium was set up at the foot of a large statue of Francisco I. Madero, who served as Mexican president in the early 20th century.
Children wearing school uniforms and holding small Mexican and American flags sat in risers on the park's perimeter, chattering excitedly before the ceremony. Young soldiers in navy blue dress uniforms and hats faced the main stage. American and Mexican flags hung from long poles that formed a semicircle at the edge of the park.
Security was tight. Armed soldiers took positions on streets near Los Pinos. Reporters traveling as part of the White House press pool were funneled through two different metal detectors before entering the park. Bags were examined both by security guards and bomb-sniffing dogs.
Obama praised Mexico and Calderon for efforts to fight the drug cartels.
"At a time when the Mexican government has so courageously taken on the drug cartels that have plagued both sides of the border, it is absolutely critical that the United States join as a full partner with this issue," Obama said.
Before Obama spoke, however, the Mexican military announced that 15 gunmen and one soldier were killed in a shootout in the state of Guerrero, where Acapulco is located. Officials said the soldiers came under fire from a convoy of gunmen Wednesday while patrolling a drug-trafficking area.
Like much of the rest of Latin America, the Mexico that receives a visit from Obama today yearns for the kind of new partnership that the president espouses.
The United States plans to help Calderon, who with his cabinet Obama said at the news conference has done "an outstanding and heroic job" in taking on the country's violent drug cartels.
Obama said the issue was more than drugs, but included efforts to curb cash and guns going south.
Powerful drug-trafficking organizations have unleashed a wave of violence that has claimed more than 10,000 lives in just over two years and could threaten Calderon's ability to govern. Calderon has repeatedly called on Washington to do more to stop the flow of weapons and drug money from the U.S. and to curb the demand for the tons of cocaine and marijuana that Mexican traffickers send north.
Obama is expected to use the same moves that he did during his successful European visit earlier this month. He vowed to listen and acknowledged past American shortcomings as he called for a focus on the future.
"Too often, the United States has not pursued and sustained engagement with our neighbors," Obama wrote in an op-ed published today in newspapers in Florida and across Latin America. "We have been too easily distracted by other priorities, and have failed to see that our own progress is tied directly to progress throughout the Americas."
Obama continued: "My administration is committed to the promise of a new day. We will renew and sustain a broader partnership between the United States and the hemisphere on behalf of our common prosperity and our common security."
Thus far, the Obama administration has promised to put more law enforcement agents along the border, step up southbound inspections, accelerate release of portions of the $1.4 billion in aid allotted under the so-called Merida Initiative and reexamine domestic drug-use policies.
Calderon's offensive against the drug gangs has consisted primarily of deploying 45,000 army troops to the most violent areas of his nation, including traditional drug-producing centers such as the state of Sinaloa, and border cities such as Tijuana.
Separately, and less successfully, he is attempting to reform major institutions by purging and retraining corrupt police forces, changing the way trials are conducted and pushing legislation to make it possible to investigate money laundering. It is in these latter "institution-building" measures that U.S. aid is especially critical, Mexican officials say.
While Obama is expected to focus on the drug war, Mexicans have other issues they want to raise.
On immigration, Mexico favors an expanded temporary-workers program that would allow Mexicans to travel back and forth over the border legally and expeditiously. About half of the 12 million illegal immigrants said to be living in the U.S. are Mexican, and regularizing their status is a priority for Calderon's government.
Obama has pledged to tackle comprehensive immigration reform, but it's a politically sensitive topic in the U.S., where there is no consensus. The issue is particularly sensitive during times of economic downturn.
The economies of the two countries are closely interconnected, and the crisis in the U.S. is felt acutely here. Remittances and exports of manufactured goods and oil -- Mexico's principal income providers -- are all declining. Another point of contention is a dispute over Mexican long-haul trucks, which under the North American Free Trade Agreement are supposed to be allowed to transport cargo in the U.S. The Obama administration suspended the program; Mexico retaliated by slapping tariffs on $2 billion worth of fruit, electronics and other U.S. exports destined for Mexico.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the issues that Obama will raise in Mexico are the same ones he will discuss at the summit.
"First and foremost is the economy, the global economic crisis, and what should be done to help it," he said. "In both Mexico and at the summit, energy and climate change will be important conversations that are had. And undoubtedly in both we'll talk about safety and security, first and foremost here in Mexico with the initiative that Congress and the administration -- both administrations, the previous administration and our administration, have undertaken."
One country that won't be at the summit is Cuba. While holding on to the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba as leverage for promoting greater political freedom in the neighboring island nation, Obama is easing travel restrictions and financial rules for Cuban-Americans who want to visit their relatives, help them financially or communicate via cellphone.
To go further, he said he is looking for "some signal" of changes in Cuba's handling of political prisoners, travel by Cubans, religious liberties and free-speech rights.
"And if there is some sense of movement on those fronts in Cuba, then I think we can see a further thawing of relations and further changes," he said.
On Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a fierce critic of the U.S. and an ally of Cuba who has called Obama's predecessor "the devil," Obama said: "Look, he's the leader of his country and he'll be one of many people that I will have an opportunity to meet."
On the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba: "Some of the practices of enhanced interrogation techniques, I think, ran counter to American values and American traditions. . . . I'm a strong believer that it is important to look forward and not backward and to remind ourselves that we do have very real security threats out there."
On the image of the U.S. in the region: It's had its "ups and downs," he said, but, "there's a reason why there are consistently so many immigrants to our country from Latin America." The U.S., he says, still is the land of "hope."
Isabel Tovar
By Peter Nicholas and Tracy Wilkinson
3:16 PM PDT, April 16, 2009
Reporting from Mexico City -- President Obama, in his first official trip to Mexico, said he will push for U.S. ratification of a treaty designed to lessen the flow of weapons to drug cartels and announced that the countries will work together on a host of issues including the environment and energy.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Mexico President Felipe Calderon, Obama said the arms trafficking treaty was needed as part "of the battle against drug cartels that are robbing so many of a future."
The presidents also announced the formation of the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Framework on Clean Energy and Climate Change, a mechanism to stimulate political and technical cooperation between the countries. And they said they would work together on other issues, including immigration.
"On many of the other thorny topics of relations between U.S. and Mexico, we have had an open, frank and trusting conversation between President Obama and myself," Calderon said at the news conference.
Obama and Calderon met this afternoon after Obama arrived here on the first leg of his Latin America debut. Obama will spend less than 24 hours in Mexico before continuing Friday to Trinidad and Tobago for the fifth Summit of the Americas, a three-day meeting of the hemisphere's 34 elected heads of state and government. U.S.-Latin American relations are at their lowest point in years.
The Obama administration had already said it will increase enforcement of existing laws to try to stop the smuggling of weapons across the border. Today's announcement is a further step in the battle against the cartels.
The Inter-American Convention Against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Ammunition, Explosives and Other Related Items better known by its Spanish acronym, CIFTA, was adopted in 1997 and went to the U.S. Senate in 1998. The United States is one of four nations in the Western Hemisphere that have not ratified the convention, though the U.S. has sought to abide by the treaty's spirit.
President Obama arrived in an embattled Mexico, where he faced a test of his ability to bring fundamental change to one of Washington's most important relationships.
Obama stepped off of Air Force One at about 1:30 p.m. local time and was greeted by Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinosa. He was then taken by helicopter to confer with Calderon.
At the formal welcoming ceremony, Calderon called for a new era of understanding and cooperation.
"We are, we can and we should be friends, partners and allies," Calderon said. "Mr. President, let's start a new era of relations between the United States and Mexico, . . . new era in which we work together to make our border an example of productivity and security . . . a new era in which the fight against organized crime is waged completely as a shared responsibility, a battle waged by both Mexicans and Americans and won as allies."
Then adapting Obama's slogan from the presidential campaign, Mexico's president added in English: "Let's build a new era. Yes we can."
Obama was equally gracious thanking Calderon for the welcome.
"There's a reason why the first visit I had with a president was with President Calderon," Obama said. "We are joined by a border but our bonds are so much more than that."
Obama arrived at 2:09 p.m. for the formal welcoming ceremony in a park on the grounds of Los Pinos, Mexico's equivalent of the White House. A podium was set up at the foot of a large statue of Francisco I. Madero, who served as Mexican president in the early 20th century.
Children wearing school uniforms and holding small Mexican and American flags sat in risers on the park's perimeter, chattering excitedly before the ceremony. Young soldiers in navy blue dress uniforms and hats faced the main stage. American and Mexican flags hung from long poles that formed a semicircle at the edge of the park.
Security was tight. Armed soldiers took positions on streets near Los Pinos. Reporters traveling as part of the White House press pool were funneled through two different metal detectors before entering the park. Bags were examined both by security guards and bomb-sniffing dogs.
Obama praised Mexico and Calderon for efforts to fight the drug cartels.
"At a time when the Mexican government has so courageously taken on the drug cartels that have plagued both sides of the border, it is absolutely critical that the United States join as a full partner with this issue," Obama said.
Before Obama spoke, however, the Mexican military announced that 15 gunmen and one soldier were killed in a shootout in the state of Guerrero, where Acapulco is located. Officials said the soldiers came under fire from a convoy of gunmen Wednesday while patrolling a drug-trafficking area.
Like much of the rest of Latin America, the Mexico that receives a visit from Obama today yearns for the kind of new partnership that the president espouses.
The United States plans to help Calderon, who with his cabinet Obama said at the news conference has done "an outstanding and heroic job" in taking on the country's violent drug cartels.
Obama said the issue was more than drugs, but included efforts to curb cash and guns going south.
Powerful drug-trafficking organizations have unleashed a wave of violence that has claimed more than 10,000 lives in just over two years and could threaten Calderon's ability to govern. Calderon has repeatedly called on Washington to do more to stop the flow of weapons and drug money from the U.S. and to curb the demand for the tons of cocaine and marijuana that Mexican traffickers send north.
Obama is expected to use the same moves that he did during his successful European visit earlier this month. He vowed to listen and acknowledged past American shortcomings as he called for a focus on the future.
"Too often, the United States has not pursued and sustained engagement with our neighbors," Obama wrote in an op-ed published today in newspapers in Florida and across Latin America. "We have been too easily distracted by other priorities, and have failed to see that our own progress is tied directly to progress throughout the Americas."
Obama continued: "My administration is committed to the promise of a new day. We will renew and sustain a broader partnership between the United States and the hemisphere on behalf of our common prosperity and our common security."
Thus far, the Obama administration has promised to put more law enforcement agents along the border, step up southbound inspections, accelerate release of portions of the $1.4 billion in aid allotted under the so-called Merida Initiative and reexamine domestic drug-use policies.
Calderon's offensive against the drug gangs has consisted primarily of deploying 45,000 army troops to the most violent areas of his nation, including traditional drug-producing centers such as the state of Sinaloa, and border cities such as Tijuana.
Separately, and less successfully, he is attempting to reform major institutions by purging and retraining corrupt police forces, changing the way trials are conducted and pushing legislation to make it possible to investigate money laundering. It is in these latter "institution-building" measures that U.S. aid is especially critical, Mexican officials say.
While Obama is expected to focus on the drug war, Mexicans have other issues they want to raise.
On immigration, Mexico favors an expanded temporary-workers program that would allow Mexicans to travel back and forth over the border legally and expeditiously. About half of the 12 million illegal immigrants said to be living in the U.S. are Mexican, and regularizing their status is a priority for Calderon's government.
Obama has pledged to tackle comprehensive immigration reform, but it's a politically sensitive topic in the U.S., where there is no consensus. The issue is particularly sensitive during times of economic downturn.
The economies of the two countries are closely interconnected, and the crisis in the U.S. is felt acutely here. Remittances and exports of manufactured goods and oil -- Mexico's principal income providers -- are all declining. Another point of contention is a dispute over Mexican long-haul trucks, which under the North American Free Trade Agreement are supposed to be allowed to transport cargo in the U.S. The Obama administration suspended the program; Mexico retaliated by slapping tariffs on $2 billion worth of fruit, electronics and other U.S. exports destined for Mexico.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the issues that Obama will raise in Mexico are the same ones he will discuss at the summit.
"First and foremost is the economy, the global economic crisis, and what should be done to help it," he said. "In both Mexico and at the summit, energy and climate change will be important conversations that are had. And undoubtedly in both we'll talk about safety and security, first and foremost here in Mexico with the initiative that Congress and the administration -- both administrations, the previous administration and our administration, have undertaken."
One country that won't be at the summit is Cuba. While holding on to the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba as leverage for promoting greater political freedom in the neighboring island nation, Obama is easing travel restrictions and financial rules for Cuban-Americans who want to visit their relatives, help them financially or communicate via cellphone.
To go further, he said he is looking for "some signal" of changes in Cuba's handling of political prisoners, travel by Cubans, religious liberties and free-speech rights.
"And if there is some sense of movement on those fronts in Cuba, then I think we can see a further thawing of relations and further changes," he said.
On Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a fierce critic of the U.S. and an ally of Cuba who has called Obama's predecessor "the devil," Obama said: "Look, he's the leader of his country and he'll be one of many people that I will have an opportunity to meet."
On the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba: "Some of the practices of enhanced interrogation techniques, I think, ran counter to American values and American traditions. . . . I'm a strong believer that it is important to look forward and not backward and to remind ourselves that we do have very real security threats out there."
On the image of the U.S. in the region: It's had its "ups and downs," he said, but, "there's a reason why there are consistently so many immigrants to our country from Latin America." The U.S., he says, still is the land of "hope."
Isabel Tovar
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
more about guns entering mexico
second amendment prohibiting clamping down on the flow of guns to mexico because legal to buy continuously and no effective tracing by the government
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/us/15guns.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
bz
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/us/15guns.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
bz
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Clinton Admits US Drug War Failure
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/3/26/headlines#3
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has admitted US drug policy has not only been a failure but has in fact fueled Mexico’s drug war. Speaking to reporters at the outset of her trip to Mexico, Clinton said, “Clearly what we’ve been doing has not worked…I feel very strongly we have a co-responsibility. Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police, of soldiers and civilians.” Clinton’s comments are being called the most far-reaching by a senior US official in accepting responsibility for the rampant drug trade.
bz
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has admitted US drug policy has not only been a failure but has in fact fueled Mexico’s drug war. Speaking to reporters at the outset of her trip to Mexico, Clinton said, “Clearly what we’ve been doing has not worked…I feel very strongly we have a co-responsibility. Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police, of soldiers and civilians.” Clinton’s comments are being called the most far-reaching by a senior US official in accepting responsibility for the rampant drug trade.
bz
Biden listens to top Central American leaders-Lizette Avila
SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) -- Vice President Joe Biden on Monday told Central American leaders pushing the United States to slow its record pace of deportations to be patient since it will not change in the short-term amid the U.S. economic downturn.
Biden's one-day visit is the first to Central America by a top-level U.S. official since President Barack Obama took office in January, and he promised to work together with leaders to strengthen ties with a region that has felt ignored by Washington.
"We are not putting together a policy for the hemisphere," Biden said. "We are putting together a policy with the hemisphere."
Central American leaders, who met with Biden at the Presidential Palace in Costa Rica, pushed for a slowing of deportations. A record 80,000 Central Americans were deported from the United States in 2008.
After the meeting, Biden told reporters that leaders must have patience while Washington devises a plan that will address the issue amid the U.S. economic downturn.
"There will not be an immediate response to deportations," said Biden, who arrived here late Sunday and left Monday afternoon after spending three days in Chile.
The deportations and U.S. economic downturn have hit the region hard. During the last quarter of 2008, money sent home by Central American migrants living in the U.S. fell 4 percent, compared to the same period the previous year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.
Remittances are a major source of foreign revenue for Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Before the crisis, the amount of money sent to these countries was growing steadily every year.
During a visit to Central America last week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Tom Shannon said Biden will work toward securing loans for Central American social projects from the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
Biden said Monday the problem can only be solved in the context of an overall immigration reform, adding that there has to be a pathway to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants in the country. He did not give details on when or how such a reform would come about.
The leaders also discussed the drug war, strengthening financial institutions to boost their ailing economies, and environmental problems. Mexican drug cartels have been increasingly moving into the region and spurring violence.
Biden said that anti-drug aid for Central America under the Merida Initiative will be increased to $100 million in 2009 from $65 million in 2008.
"We hope to keep it there in the coming years," Biden said.
Central American leaders have complained that they were ignored by the administration of George W. Bush. Biden made clear that the Obama administration intends to change that. He also emphasized that Washington wants to work with the region.
"I hope they are convinced of the sincerity of my government to change the dynamic," he said.
Biden is using his trip through Latin America as an opportunity to reach out in the run up to Obama's visit to the Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad.
The most recent in a series of left-leaning leaders elected in Latin America, Salvadoran President-elect Mauricio Funes said he hoped to strengthen his nation's strategic alliance with the U.S.
Funes, who takes office on June 1, said he would not fall under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and urged the socialist leader not to meddle in El Salvador's affairs."Because my party has close ties to Chavez, that does not mean my foreign policy will be subordinated to Chavez," he said.
© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.
Biden's one-day visit is the first to Central America by a top-level U.S. official since President Barack Obama took office in January, and he promised to work together with leaders to strengthen ties with a region that has felt ignored by Washington.
"We are not putting together a policy for the hemisphere," Biden said. "We are putting together a policy with the hemisphere."
Central American leaders, who met with Biden at the Presidential Palace in Costa Rica, pushed for a slowing of deportations. A record 80,000 Central Americans were deported from the United States in 2008.
After the meeting, Biden told reporters that leaders must have patience while Washington devises a plan that will address the issue amid the U.S. economic downturn.
"There will not be an immediate response to deportations," said Biden, who arrived here late Sunday and left Monday afternoon after spending three days in Chile.
The deportations and U.S. economic downturn have hit the region hard. During the last quarter of 2008, money sent home by Central American migrants living in the U.S. fell 4 percent, compared to the same period the previous year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.
Remittances are a major source of foreign revenue for Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Before the crisis, the amount of money sent to these countries was growing steadily every year.
During a visit to Central America last week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Tom Shannon said Biden will work toward securing loans for Central American social projects from the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
Biden said Monday the problem can only be solved in the context of an overall immigration reform, adding that there has to be a pathway to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants in the country. He did not give details on when or how such a reform would come about.
The leaders also discussed the drug war, strengthening financial institutions to boost their ailing economies, and environmental problems. Mexican drug cartels have been increasingly moving into the region and spurring violence.
Biden said that anti-drug aid for Central America under the Merida Initiative will be increased to $100 million in 2009 from $65 million in 2008.
"We hope to keep it there in the coming years," Biden said.
Central American leaders have complained that they were ignored by the administration of George W. Bush. Biden made clear that the Obama administration intends to change that. He also emphasized that Washington wants to work with the region.
"I hope they are convinced of the sincerity of my government to change the dynamic," he said.
Biden is using his trip through Latin America as an opportunity to reach out in the run up to Obama's visit to the Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad.
The most recent in a series of left-leaning leaders elected in Latin America, Salvadoran President-elect Mauricio Funes said he hoped to strengthen his nation's strategic alliance with the U.S.
Funes, who takes office on June 1, said he would not fall under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and urged the socialist leader not to meddle in El Salvador's affairs."Because my party has close ties to Chavez, that does not mean my foreign policy will be subordinated to Chavez," he said.
© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.
Mexico's Drug War Fallout http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rodriguez6-2009apr06,0,3344884.column
This column addresses the the impact of the Mexican drug war on Mexican immigrants in the U.S. Media coverage about the violence in Mexico has become more common and according to the columnist this can lead to a rise in anti-immigrant sentiments within the U.S. while also making immigrants' stay in the U.S. a more permanent option.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
ANALYSIS-Mexico drug war, economy hobble Calderon's ambitions
MEXICO CITY, April 6 (Reuters) - Wrestling murderous drug gangs with one hand and fending off a recession with the other, Mexico's Felipe Calderon faces a defeat in mid-term elections that could hobble the rest of his presidency.Since he took power in late 2006 and launched a war on drug cartels, drug killings have rocketed -- sparking alarm in the United States that they could spill over the border -- and the global financial crisis is now whipping the Mexican economy.Although Calderon is admired for having the courage to take on the cartels, he doesn't yet have much to show for it and his approval ratings, which for long held above 60 percent, dipped to the mid-50s in a recent poll.His conservative National Action Party, or PAN, is ranked in second place for the July legislative elections behind the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico with a firm hand for 71 years until 2000.If the PAN loses many seats in Congress, where it is the biggest party but lacks a majority, Calderon will have much less chance of pushing through more of the deft economic reforms that pleased investors early on in his six-year term."The combination of the drug war and the economic crisis have battered Calderon. People are very dispirited," said Dan Lund, head of research firm MUND Americas.About 6,300 people were murdered in the drugs war last year and the economy will likely shrink by at least 3 percent this year. The peso currency has slumped and Mexico was forced to sign up for a $47 billion IMF credit line last week.The drugs war and economic crisis are also starting to feed off each other. By rattling investors and tourists, the drug violence shaves about 1 percent annual growth off the already sputtering economy, and rising unemployment could nudge more youths to join the drug cartels, government officials say.Lower growth could leave Mexico with less cash to spend on the drug war, which cost $6.4 billion over 2007 and 2008."Frankly, I never imagined we could reach this level of disintegration, that the breakdown would be so fast," said Alejandro Gutierrez, author of a 2007 book called "Drug Trafficking: Calderon's Big Challenge"."Year three tends to be the one you are judged by. We are nearly there and Calderon has a lot of fronts open in the drug war. I don't think he can do much in a year or two."Calderon, an adroit former lawyer, ran an unexciting election campaign but then pleased investors by steering tax, pension and oil reforms through a divided Congress in under two years. He has also impressed security analysts with moves to clean up Mexico's rabidly corrupt police and justice systems.His drug war offensive has put thousands of smugglers behind bars and exposed brazen corruption running to the top of federal security forces.But the top traffickers have not been caught and even the deployment of tens of thousands of army troops has failed to stop the flow of cocaine, marijuana, methamphetamine and heroin north across the border into the United States."ORANGE ALERT"The U.S. military recently riled Mexico by including it in a report on "weak and failing states"."Calderon didn't have a lot of choice, he had to confront this phenomenon, but the drug war is damaging for him and for the country," said private security consultant Alberto Islas."Last year saw bombs, grenades, an attack on a TV station, more than 6,000 dead people. Mexico is not a failed state but we're on 'orange alert'. People want more stability and they're going to vote for other parties."Despite international concern over the drug war, most Mexicans cite the economy as more of a concern than security.Mexico has bounced back from its mid-1990s "Tequila Crisis" with steady growth, low inflation, and a restructuring of its debt but the global downturn has slashed U.S. demand for Mexican-built cars and factory goods, kept oil prices low and hit migrant remittances.While the central bank has burned through chunks of dollar reserves to shore up the peso, Calderon has been busy coordinating a ground war between 45,000 troops and ruthless cartel hitmen armed with smuggled American guns.Images of bloodied corpses, severed heads and bodies strung from bridges or dissolved in acid baths have shocked the world. U.S. President Barack Obama will meet Calderon in Mexico this month after visits by a string of concerned U.S. officials.Mexico insists it has the situation under control. Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora says the pace of killings is slowing and there is no need for the United States to send troops to protect its southern border.But a likely loss of seats in Congress and bickering between the PAN and the centrist PRI, whose backing it needs to pass laws, means Calderon may struggle to pursue his reforms."Following mid-terms he could conceivably become a lame duck president," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington."The drug wars don't really have an end-date," he said. "Mexico is at a critical juncture in consolidating itself as a democracy. The transformation could take three or four presidencies, it's not something a president can undertake and complete in one term." (Editing by Kieran Murray)
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